By
Denny O'Brien
©2010 Bonesville.net
All Rights Reserved.
So this is the ‘Big One.’
Realignment Armageddon. A Trail of Tears for Baylor, Iowa State, and any
other leftovers should the Big XII implode.
In the bizarro world of
college athletics, who could have envisioned a scenario in which
Conference USA or the Sun Belt outlasted a BCS Automatic Qualifier
conference? Or individual schools testing the market like professional
free agents?
Definitely not me.
John Swofford and the
major players in conference expansion from 2003 couldn’t have predicted
it, either.
But it’s looking more like
the End Times for the Big XII is near, a possibility that could be
decided as early as Tuesday when the University of Texas System Board of
Regents meets to determine the Longhorns’ conference fate.
We might as well change
the name from the BCS to the DCS. Because the Darwinian Championship
Series is more accurate nomenclature for a competitive system of natural
selection, one in which perceived predatory conferences are in danger of
becoming extinct at the hands of more dominant predators.
The unpredictable nature
of what could occur this week has raised the anxiety of administrators
and fans from Greenville to Lawrence. In one locale you have a school
facing perhaps its final opportunity for AQ inclusion. In the other you
have one of the nation’s most prestigious hoops outposts in serious
danger of losing it.
If nothing else it
demonstrates the minimal impact basketball has on shaping the direction
of conference realignment. Well, unless your name is the Big East, the
one BCS AQ conference (at least for the time being) that clings to a
structure that is driven by hoops.
In a tsunami of unknowns,
there is at least one certainty in this game of conference switch-a-roo.
The gap between the divisions in the Football Bowl Subdivision is
guaranteed to grow.
When the Big Ten, Pac-Pick
a Number, and the Southeastern Conference all strike their next TV
deals, expect record returns. When it comes time to structure new bowl
contracts, look for the number of tie-ins and payouts to grow.
And when it comes to the
number of entries to the big money bowls, those could become even more
exclusive to AQ leagues.
If the non-AQ conferences
are considered the dregs of major college football, imagine how they
will be perceived when the conference shuffling is complete. Not highly,
that’s for sure.
The perception is likely
to parallel the bank account. Both should prove a small fraction of what
the Big Boys will command.
Act of desperation?
You can’t knock Memphis
for trying. It has been proactive in its campaign to join a BCS AQ
conference, somewhat with action, but mostly with words.
A recent report that FedEx
CEO Fred Smith is willing to purchase Memphis’ entrance into an AQ
conference — a report that FedEx is now refuting — is telling on many
fronts. Most notable is the notion that Smith’s bank account is the
Tigers’ biggest selling point.
Think about it.
Men’s basketball, the
crown jewel of Memphis athletics, is constantly under suspicion for
questionable recruiting tactics. In football, the Tigers ranked among
the worst outfits in the FBS last season, and couldn’t even draw 5,000
for their home game against East Carolina.
(Note: The announced
attendance at the game was less than 5,000. The athletics department
changed it to more than 30,000 — the number of tickets sold — a day
later.)
In the end, Memphis could
find itself in an AQ conference, but it won’t be the product of what it
has accomplished between the hashes.
Clearly the Tigers’
greatest appeal is the number of decimals that can be produced by the
stroke of a shipping mogul’s pen, should he decide to use it.
Holland draws response
It didn’t take long for
ECU athletics director Terry Holland’s latest “Message to the Pirate
Nation” to make the rounds among the national media. Bloggers and
columnists from ESPN to the Dallas Morning News quoted Holland on the
topic of conference expansion.
In the message, Holland
specifically mentioned scenarios involving the Big XII, C-USA, and the
Big East. It’s just not clear how much of it was based on opinion versus
facts about what is occurring behind the scenes.
Holland is widely revered
by ECU fans for, among other things, a degree of transparency that is
unmatched in the profession. You simply won’t find another athletics
director at a major university willing to disclose his (or her) thought
process so openly to fans.
And that can be both good
and bad.
Some around the
Blogosphere are questioning whether Holland’s recent message was a
stroke of PR genius, or an ill-advised monologue that could backfire on
ECU. If you ask me, probably neither.
While Holland’s message
raised a few eyebrows, it is hardly the fuel that keeps the expansion
fires burning. Too many schools are in play and too much money is at
stake for a single letter to prompt knee-jerk decisions.
