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SURVEYING THE LANDSCAPE
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Slam Dunks No. 4
Friday, March 3, 2006
By Denny O'Brien |
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Contenders aplenty as
Madness approaches
�2006 Bonesville.net
Word to the wise: Exercise some caution
before dropping too much money on your NCAA Tournament office pool.
If ever a year existed when the number of
Final Four possibilities easily exceeded the teens, 2006 is it. And while
Connecticut and Duke appear to be the safest bets for Indianapolis, even
that dynamic duo is far from flawless.
Here�s a look at six NCAA favorites, a few
reasons why you should bet on them, and a few reasons you shouldn�t:
CONNECTICUT: A virtual lock for a
No. 1 seed and likely the favorite in Vegas to take home the top prize.
UConn has the nation�s best starting five and a deep bench of capable
contributors.
Why you should: The Huskies are the best
team in the nation�s best league. They are battle tested and have no real
weakness on which their opponents can focus. Though there is plenty of
scoring balance, several players are capable of taking a game over. Oh yeah,
and Rudy Gay is a star.
Why you shouldn�t: Because they are big,
quicker teams can beat the Huskies with dribble penetration. UConn also is
turning it over more than its opponents, and isn�t exactly shooting lights
out at the free throw line � 68%. Given that March is dictated by guards,
UConn can�t be considered a 100 percent lock, even though it is the closest
thing to it.
DUKE: The Blue Devils are in a very
familiar position. They�ve already sewn up a No. 1 see and are essentially
guaranteed to spend the first weekend in Greensboro. Their coach has a
pretty good track record in March, too.
Why you should: J.J. Redick and Sheldon
Williams form the best inside-outside combination in recent memory. Redick
is the most dangerous offensive weapon in the country, and Williams would
have to rank as the most intimidating defender. The development of Greg
Paulus at the point, along with the steady improvement of Josh McRoberts and
DeMarcus Nelson, gives the Devils additional firepower.
Why you shouldn�t: The Devils have
struggled against long, athletic teams with big men who can take Williams
away from the basket. Duke has proven beatable off the dribble when
opponents spread the floor. See Georgetown and Florida State. And though
Paulus has steadily improved, he�s still a freshman.
VILLANOVA: Nova�s return to the
elite has been one of the better storylines this season. Unlike the Cats�
run in 1985 under Rollie Massimino, a Final Four appearance by this bunch
wouldn�t be met with surprise.
Why you should: Guards. Winning in March is
very much about guard play, and nobody has a deeper backcourt. The Wildcats
have four players 6-4 and under who average double-digits in scoring. Randy
Foye and Allan Ray also have the ability to take games over.
Why you shouldn�t: Guards. Villanova may
have too much of a good thing, especially when matched against bigger, more
physical foes. The Wildcats surprisingly out-rebound their opponents, but it
will be interesting to see if that trend continues if matched against
low-post minded teams.
MEMPHIS: Gonzaga East made easy work
of a weak Conference USA, strolling through the league slate with no bumps
in its path until it hit a big pothole at UAB Thursday night. Despite the
stunning loss to the Blazers, the Tigers
are deep and should be fresh come tournament time.
Why you should: The Tigers are long,
athletic, and versatile. They have one of the nation�s best wings in Rodney
Carney, to go along with one of the top floor generals in Darius Washington.
That�s a nice luxury come March. Having something to prove adds the grit.
Why you shouldn�t: Memphis has played
against only two legitimate clubs in the New Year � Texas (L) and Tennessee
(W) � and has seen its strength of schedule take a nosedive during C-USA
play. The Tigers� also can be impatient at times on offense, settling for
three-pointers too early in a possession. That could send them packing early
if they go cold behind the arc.
TEXAS: The Longhorns are at least in
the argument for the nation�s best starting five, but the nod here still
goes to UConn. Even so, it�s hard to complain with an inside duo like
LeMarcus Aldridge and P.J. Tucker, along with a backcourt tandem of Daniel
Gibson and Kenton Paulino.
Why you should: Balance. The Longhorns can
score inside or out and can distribute the load evenly if needed among their
starting five. Keying on one player isn�t necessarily a solid solution for
opponents defensively. That Tucker kid is pretty good, too.
Why you shouldn�t: Perimeter defense hasn�t
been the Longhorns� strong suit. That could spell trouble against teams with
good guards, of which there are many. There also isn�t much scoring punch on
the bench, so foul trouble or an injury could become an issue. Remember what
happened against Duke when Brad Buckman came up lame?
OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes have flown
under the radar almost the entire season. But any team that makes it through
the tough Big Ten gauntlet with only four losses has to be considered one of
the top threats in March.
Why you should: OSU is battle tested. The
Buckeyes lost only once in February (78-73 at Wisconsin) and have beaten
Illinois, Michigan State, and Michigan during the month. They also shoot the
ball well from the floor and behind the arc (48% and 40% respectively) and
take relatively good care of the basketball (12.5 turnovers per game).
Why you shouldn�t: Ohio State lacks the
firepower of the other Big Boys, and there really isn�t anyone who can
shoulder the load in tight games. This also is relatively new territory for
the Buckeyes, who lack the Tournament experience of their peers.
Missing ingredient
Think N.C. State hasn�t missed Julius
Hodge? Think again.
Though the Wolfpack has an improved record
this season � and no doubt is a better all-around club � it may struggle to
surpass last year�s run to the Sweet Sixteen.
With the absence of a go-to guy, State has
sputtered offensively in pressure situations. We saw it three weeks ago with
its inability to create a late opportunity at Georgia Tech, and again this
past Sunday in a double-overtime loss to Boston College.
In both cases, the Pack looked disoriented
on offense, and no one appeared poised enough to create a good shot. That
wasn�t the case when Hodge was in town.
Marketing Madness
OK, ESPN� enough already.
We were giddy ten years ago when you added
Big Monday to the weekly profile. And the wholesale offering of league
tournament finals during Championship Week has been a delight.
But isn�t it about time to stop with the
clever college hoops marketing schemes?
Over the past couple of years, Judgment
Week, Rivalry Week, Throwdown Thursday, and Bracket Busters (surely I�m
missing one) have been added to the portfolio, with each designed to capture
specific niche interests of hardwood fans. Not to be overlooked is the
not-so-riveting ACC-Big Ten Challenge, which has to rank as the most
pointless of ESPN�s novelty events.
Now, if the Worldwide Leader really wanted
to be creative, perhaps it could feature an evening of perennial cream puffs
from one-bid leagues facing off in a loser-take-all. �RPI Killers� has a
nice ring.
Head of the Pack
Want to really learn something about
college hoops? Watch any game for which Billy Packer provides the color
commentary.
His pull-no-punches approach to breaking
down a game is a refreshing break from the fluff that many in his seat
deliver. And instead of always touting the feats of some of the game�s most
storied programs, Packer isn�t afraid to pinpoint their flaws.
If you�re looking for a homer whose bias
for particular teams can be clearly detected, tune into Dickie V. But
if you want intelligent game dissection and profound commentary, Mr. Cash is
on the money.
True, he often has been accused by fans of
being a bitter, crotchety old man who overflows with negativity. That just
adds to his solid credibility.
Send
an e-mail message to Denny O'Brien.
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O'Brien's Bonesville archives.
02/23/2007 02:02:55 AM |
