091911 DENNY O'BRIEN ::: ECU could benefit from conference chaos [fb]

It might not be the exact opportunity East Carolina has been seeking, but at least there is a crack in the door.

With the announcement on Sunday that Pittsburgh and Syracuse are joining the Atlantic Coast Conference, it’s clear we are in the midst of another seismic restructuring of major college athletics.

The chances that ECU finds itself in a more desirable football alignment are far greater than they were in 2003. That’s because two BCS Automatic Qualifier conferences — the Big 12 and Big East — are officially on death watch. Both are in serious danger of completely crumbling, which ultimately would lead to several leftovers in need of a new conference home.

Of course, much of this depends on Texas and Oklahoma. If they decide to shift allegiances to the Pac-12, it would mark the end of the Big 12 as legitimate player in major college athletics and spark another round of significant reshuffling.

The Longhorns and Sooners could take Oklahoma State and Texas Tech with them and leave league commissioner Dan Beebe with the Little 5. But at this stage we still are dealing with, at best, educated speculation around what occurs between the Big 12, Pac-12, Big East, or SEC.

Ditto for ECU.

About the only certainty at this stage for the Pirates is that we can officially put to rest any notion of them joining the ACC. The unanimous vote by league members to increase the buyout clause to $20 million delivered a strong statement that the ACC wouldn’t be pillaged by the SEC or any other conference.

Any chance ECU ever had of joining the ACC was completely contingent on the league suffering major defections. And despite assumptions that the SEC might lure Clemson, Florida State, or Virginia Tech away, John Swofford again became a buyer — not a seller — in the expansion spree.

We also can assume that East Carolina won’t be a target of the SEC. Though the Pirates’ athletics culture is fully aligned with the SEC’s mission, the SEC is largely composed of schools that are either the flagship for their state, or a land grant university.

Vanderbilt is the obvious exception.

This doesn’t mean the Pirates can’t or won’t improve their national positioning. Given the sheer volume of impending change on the horizon, chances are very good that they will.

Should Rutgers (to the ACC), UConn (to the ACC), and West Virginia (to the SEC) upgrade conferences, that would leave Cincinnati, Louisville, Texas Christian, and South Florida in need of conference partners. A scenario in which the Pirates and a few others join them to salvage the Big East football banner would be an upgrade over the status quo, especially if the Big East is able to retain its AQ affiliation.

Even if doesn't retain its automatic ticket to a BCS bowl, the Big East could offer ECU a better lineup of conference opponents and, to a certain degree, some relief to the travel budget.

Should the Big East not survive, you have to think that the potential for constructing a new East Coast, football-minded conference is on the table. The possibility of the Pirates hooking up with the Big East’s leftovers, a couple of Conference USA East rivals, Army, Navy, and Temple could provide a workable solution.

About the only scenario in which East Carolina can’t afford to find itself — at least not right now — is some type of alignment with Appalachian State, James Madison, UNC-Charlotte, William & Mary, or other current Football Championship Subdivision programs. Joining forces with them might ease the Pirates’ travel burden, but it would do so at the cost of a significant downgrade in perception and with limited revenue potential.

You simply won’t sell many bowl or television executives with that lineup of schools.

And that ultimately is the key for East Carolina. If, at the end of the day, athletics director Terry Holland can improve the Pirates’ access to bowl and television revenue, the Pirates will emerge as realignment winners.

Given the urgency with which conference and school administrators are pursuing realignment, we should know East Carolina’s fate relatively soon.