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Pirate Notebook No. 255
Friday, October 14, 2005

By Denny O'Brien

Small margin for error keeps ECU vulnerable

�2005 Bonesville.net

PIRATE TALK

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First the good news for East Carolina as it approaches the midway point of the 2005 season.

The Pirates already have matched last season's win total and have made noticeable progress each game. From offense to defense, attitude to effort, ECU obviously is a much-improved outfit that again can compete with most of the programs on its schedule.

Now the bad news.

The Pirates' victories were at home against two of Division I-A's weakest offerings. Duke and Rice have combined for exactly one win this season, and East Carolina needed a strong fourth quarter effort against both to secure victory.

That's why any notion that the remainder of the schedule is substantially weaker should be dismissed.

"I don't want to lie to them and say it's going to be easy," Pirates coach Skip Holtz said. "Because I don't know that it will be. If anything it may even be harder, because the more you go without being rewarded for the fruits of your labor, the harder it is to keep going.

"You're either going to get more determined and we're going to pull this thing closer together and keep fighting to get over the hump. Or, some people will start to throw in the towel. I don't think that's the case right now."

Neither do I.

If nothing else, it's a fairly safe bet that ECU will continue its determined play and should improve as the season progresses. Despite the lack of success the team's seniors have experienced throughout their careers, their on-field and locker room leadership appears to be the strongest the team has had since 2001.

Much of that can be attributed to the quickness with which Holtz has changed the culture of the program, not to mention a resolute bunch of win-starved upperclassmen who have bought into their coach's philosophy.

"They're playing hard," Holtz said. "But just because you play hard doesn't mean that you are going to win. We've got to learn to play smart, and we've got a big hurdle to climb as a football team.

"We've made huge strides. We've come along way in coming together as a team, but we still have to learn how to win. We've got to learn how penalties are going to affect us, how the turnovers are going to affect us. And we've got to start playing smart, or it's going to be a really long season."

Translated, the Pirates still face an uphill climb, one that will remain steep if the execution does not catch up to the effort.

Five games in, ECU has yet to piece together a complete game in which all three phases clicked on all cylinders. One week the offense shows a glimpse of its explosiveness, but that spark seems to fizzle the next. The same can be said on defense.

The one constant has been the steady play of several individuals � James Pinkney, Aundrae Allison, and Marcus Hands � who clearly are among the top three at their positions in Conference USA. But as crucial as individual performance is in college football, its impact on the outcome of a game is far less than a collective effort.

All it takes is one missed block or mental blunder to completely change the complexion of a game. And when neither team holds a decided personnel advantage, that can be the difference in the outcome.

Which is exactly the scenario in which East Carolina currently finds itself.

Of the six games remaining, there isn't a team against which the talent pendulum will swing noticeably in ECU's favor. If anything, the Pirates' opponents will hold a slight advantage on most occasions.

Even so, each of the Pirates' remaining games should be considered winnable. With continued determination and improved execution, there is no reason to think ECU can't at least double its current win total or even flirt with a winning record and possible postseason appearance.

At this stage, anything from 8-3 to 2-9 is a legitimate possibility. The most likely scenario is something in between.

The margin for error is that narrow for ECU.

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02/23/2007 02:00:30 AM

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