There is no status quo in college athletics. That's the
lesson we learned from the great conference shakeup of 2003.
Though the notion exists that all is quiet on the
realignment front, it's a good bet that more tremors will be felt over the
next couple of years, with the Big East leading the charge.
No question, Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese was the
big loser in '03. With no clear direction or mission, his league was easy
prey in the predatory practice of conference expansion.
Atlantic Coast Conference commissioner John Swofford,
seeking to upgrade his league's membership from nine to 12, plucked
Tranghese's ripest programs like an early-summer harvest. Tranghese's
response was to ambush Conference USA and seize its most prized basketball
possessions, a move that hardly compensated for the Big East's losses in
football.
In fact, Tranghese's move merely reinvented the scenario
that made the conference vulnerable to invasion before: a hybrid
configuration in which the league membership's interests are divided between
football and hoops.
Even so, the odds of the Big East enduring another major
pillage are fairly slim. With most major conferences in its jurisdiction
already boasting 12 members, the league, for the most part, appears safe
from another significant heist.
Of course, the chance exists that the Big Ten could court
West Virginia, Pittsburgh, or Syracuse. However, that's dependent largely on
a unified desire of the Midwestern football power to up membership to 12 �
and a reluctance by Notre Dame to cast its lot with the Big Ten.
Such is the uncertain nature of today's bigtime college
athletics landscape. The question no longer is if a strategic move will be
made, it's by whom and when.
Judging by the ACC's motives for expansion, it's clear
that the Big East should lead the next charge by improving its football
profile with a 12-school, all-sports league.
Not only would that put all members on the same song page,
it also would enhance the conference's television appeal.
"Over the last half-century, televised college football
has manufactured money, greed, dependence and envy," author Keith Dunnavant
said in his book, The 50 Year Seduction, which examines the effect
television has had on college football. "(TV) altered the recruiting
process, eventually forcing the colleges to compete with the irresistible
forces of National Football League riches."
The Big East is barely competitive with C-USA and the
Mountain West Conference in terms of television appeal. The notion that it
could draw ratings rivaling the NFL is comical.
Of the Big East's eight football members, almost half �
Cincinnati, Rutgers, and South Florida � has a reputation for poor
attendance. Combine that with the cold hard reality that none of the three
programs resonates with a national audience, and the league has little
leverage at the negotiating tables for TV contracts and new bowl tie-ins.
Though chastised for what many perceived as bullish
behavior, the ACC was justified for expanding to 12. The end result � a
lucrative television deal that includes a conference championship game �
trumps any backlash the league received in both the public and the media.
If the Big East wants to survive as a legitimate football
conference, it must follow that lead.
Without a significant image makeover, the Big East could
drop another link on the national food chain. Utah's recent bursting of the
BCS bubble, along with the addition of Texas Christian, puts the Mountain
West on level ground with the Big East.
If Texas-El Paso and Memphis continue to improve, C-USA
would join the mix.
To avoid that scenario, the Big East desperately needs
numbers and depth. When Louisville is the top program in an eight-school
conglomerate, the cards are firmly in the hands of the networks and bowl
officials.
Not that the Cardinals aren't a potential power
in-the-making. As long as Bobby Petrino remains a resident of the Derby
City, Louisville should be a player on the national scene.
But if the Big East wants a piece of the big-money pie, it
better add a few seats to its table.
With so much money controlled by television, the days of
smaller, tightly-knit leagues have long passed. The Southeastern Conference
and the Big 12 pioneered that theory, with the ACC further proving it.
More teams means more markets, which translates to more
viewers and dollars. The trick is finding schools with strong football
cultures that appeal to TV and bowl executives.
Hypothetically, Notre Dame naturally would be atop the Big
East's wish list. Beyond the Irish, East Carolina, Marshall, and Memphis
would make financial sense.
What doesn't is sitting put. Doing so could lock the Big
East out of the big money for good.
That's a gamble Tranghese can't afford to take.