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Pirate Notebook No. 182
Wednesday, March 10, 2004

By Denny O'Brien
Staff Writer and Columnist

The grand climax before the decline?

�2004 Bonesville.net

You might want to take a snapshot of the 2004 Conference USA tournament. Two years from now when the league convenes for its postseason party, this year's gathering of juggernauts might be a mere vivid memory of a once-emerging Goliath.

In its place could well stand a conference dramatically trimmed down from its current heavyweight status. Future winners of the Low Carb-USA tournament won't wear the number of battle scars that should mark the champion of this year's event.

Given the number of wounds each club already has suffered heading into the tourney, wearing the crown this Saturday will be more a symbol of survival than supremacy.

"I think one of the key things, whether you have a first round bye or not, is you have to have your ducks in order so to speak in the two weeks leading up to it," Saint Louis coach Brad Soderberg said. "In other words, I think the teams that are playing really solid basketball at this time of the year have a marked advantage over the teams that aren't.

"If your team is struggling or is not sound, or your offense is not clicking going into the tournament, I think it's going to be hard to win it because you don't have enough practice time from game to game. So right now, I think everybody is trying � us included � to just make sure the quality of practice this week is excellent."

As far as league tournaments go, C-USA historically has lacked the drama and competition of older, more established conferences. Only eight years old and assembled primarily by a hodgepodge of geographically diverse metropolitan universities, the league's annual tournament to date has been a relative snooze.

But that generally is the case when there is a shortage of regional rivalries and a surplus of pushovers.

The script this week should be much different, given the star-studded cast. Top to bottom, this by far is the most balanced tournament in C-USA history. While the ACC has received most of the national press with regard to parity, C-USA's logjam at the top produced one of the more competitive regular season battles ever in college basketball.

Common logic suggests the tournament will be no different.

Unlike most postseason events, all 12 schools have a legitimate shot of winning a game, perhaps even two, in Cincinnati. Odds are the champion will come from the pool of teams that received first round byes (Face it, winning four straight against this lineup and under this pressure is a long shot at best.), but the amount of havoc first round winners can create shouldn't be overlooked.

For starters, East Carolina finished the regular season winning four of its last five and is playing at a level much higher than its No. 11 seed. The Pirates are an easy out by no measure and play a style of defense that can be mentally taxing on any opponent.

Rest assured Louisville hasn't already etched its name alongside Cincinnati. And regardless of which school faces the Bearcats, expect an emotionally draining fight to the finish Thursday.

With some postseason bids and seedings still in flux, that should be the recurring theme throughout the week. Though six C-USA schools are virtual NCAA locks, this week provides a final opportunity to impress the selection committee.

Louisville's high RPI has kept it off the bubble, but the Cardinals' stretch run has been more of a limp. If the Cardinals can rebound and run the table, their stock could rise as high as a No. 4 seed.

DePaul, Cincinnati, Memphis, Charlotte, and UAB all have played well over the past month, though a quick exit from the conference tournament may set up an undesirable first round match-up in the Big Dance.

Seven bids are not out of the realm of possibility considering that Marquette could earn an at-large berth with an appearance in Saturday's championship. That would give the Golden Eagles 20 wins, including several over quality opponents.

Even East Carolina could earn an NIT bid with a couple of wins.

About the only given heading into Wednesday is the amount of concentration, intensity, and stamina it will take to win the C-USA brass. At this point, reaching the peak of Mt. Everest might be the easier task.

The greatest danger is that the C-USA tournament could leave its NCAA participants with little fuel in the tank. Then again, the mental toughness developed throughout the rigorous league gauntlet may provide enough postseason armor.

The winner Saturday no doubt will ride a powerful wave of emotion throughout the week, which sometimes can be enough to thrust a team into the Sweet 16. But the question remains whether or not C-USA's casualties will recover in time to make a deep NCAA run.

Two years from now it won't be an issue.

One at a time

Survive and advance.

Charlotte coach Bobby Lutz put that old adage to work this year by keeping his club focused and not circling key games far down the schedule.

"We don't talk about it, and we encourage them not to worry about it," Lutz said. "I've been really pleased with this particular team that they do that.

"It's a clich� to focus on the next game, but we've really done that. I'm confident that we will continue to do that. I think that's because we've got three seniors that have all been contributing and have been part of the good times, and were a part of last year, which wasn't so good to us."

That one-game-at-a-time mentality can be especially challenging when a program is trying to claw its way into the NCAA tournament.

Nonetheless, DePaul coach Dave Leitao has been able to keep his team on track, despite speculation that the Blue Demons are a borderline NCAA club.

"It really doesn't dominate any part of my day," Leitao said earlier this week. "What I'm hearing in the office with my staff, or especially with my players, it really has become a lot less, if at all, a part of our daily conversations.

"We're in the middle of a league race right now. If we can take care of our business, within the league, then everything else outside of the league and in the future will take care of itself."

With wins over Cincinnati and South Florida this week, DePaul secured the No. 1 seed in this week's conference tournament and likely assured itself of an NCAA bid.

Balance the key

Strong perimeter play is paramount for a deep postseason run. In a league stockpiled with guards, that theory could bode well for C-USA, considering many of its members are prolific in scoring from the outside.

Still, Lutz is cautious about focusing too much on the three-point line as the NCAA playoffs approach.

"The question is, what is relying too much on it?" Lutz asked. "All coaches try to maximize what they have, and we're not nearly as reliant on the three-point shot as we have in past years.

"...But it's dangerous if you rely on the three to beat anybody. If you have to rely on it for a tremendous amount of your offense, you're also at the mercy of maybe losing to anybody as well. Because no matter how good you are from the three-point line, there are going to be days where you don't shoot it as well. Obviously, a balanced attack is what you want."

Though Charlotte traditionally has been a program defined by sharpshooters, the 49ers have developed one of C-USA's most potent inside games this season.

League implosion spurs disappointment

Not all of C-USA's defecting schools seem happy about the league's future break-up. At least not a few key representatives of those institutions.

One of those sad about his school's departure is Soderberg. The Billikens, along with Charlotte, will begin play in the Atlantic 10 in the 2005-06 season.

"I have debated the point that I'm so discouraged that Conference USA is breaking up," Soderberg said. "I said this even a year ago when there were talks about that happening because I think Conference USA has proven that it is one of the conferences to watch in the country.

"If the RPI rankings are correct in my mind, it's moved up to fifth in the country, ahead of even the Big Ten and the Pac 10. I don't think that's a joke. The league is really outstanding."

At least for the time being.

After that, unless traditional powerhouse Memphis lifts its partners in the reconfigured league's hoops alignment up by the bootstraps, it will likely be up to football to reconstruct C-USA's overall power quotient by seizing on a potentially more accessible Bowl Championship Series scheme.

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02/23/2007 01:56:24 AM

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