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The breakdowns and the matchups
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Denny
O'Brien's Weekend Preview
Friday, August 30, 2002
Football
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In-state battles highlight
league action
©2002 Bonesville.net
Magazine Correction
Notice: |
The Conference
USA Preseason Preview and Power Poll package which appeared in
the just-published Bonesville.net The Magazine was
written by Denny O'Brien. It was inadvertently attributed to Ron
Cherubini because of a technical error. |
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The first full week of college football
features three consecutive days of Conference USA action, including rare
contests on Sunday and Monday.
Highlighting the slate are five games
pitting C-USA teams against in-state rivals, though outside of
Louisville-Kentucky, most of the matchups could be labeled snoozers.
No game looms larger than the Labor Day
contest between Texas Christian and Cincinnati, both of which should figure
in the race for one of C-USA's five bowl berths. Much of the week, however,
can be characterized as Blowout City, which is what you would expect when
I-AA foes come to town.
My C-USA Power Poll, which debuted this week
in Bonesville.net The Magazine, you might say, goes against the grain
by ranking Southern Miss ahead of BCS hopeful Louisville. But these
rankings are based on where the teams are right now, not where they might
eventually be. After all, there are unforeseen factors that weigh in during
the season, such as injuries, which, by the way, are inevitable.
Simply put, the Cards have too many question
marks present to rank them ahead of USM right now. Offensive line?
Receiving corps? Is the defense really that good?
Get my drift?
And if the two were to play today, I'd take
those ornery Eagles in a heartbeat — and twice again on Sunday.
East Carolina at
Duke
The last time ECU and Duke squared off was the 2000 season opener -- loss
number three in Duke's current 23-game skid. The Pirates are looking to end
a streak of their own, having lost three consecutive dating back to last
season.
The Bucs find themselves in a situation
eerily akin to last year. Duke, which brought in former Georgia Tech
defensive coordinator Ted Roof during the offseason, has made schematic and
personnel changes on defense, meaning the Pirates will have to adjust on the
fly. That could make things a little interesting with new quarterback Paul
Troth under center.
C-USA Power Poll
1. Southern Miss -
The Golden Eagles are as hungry as ever and return 18 starters
from last year's 6-5 team. That's a very dangerous combination.
2. Louisville - QB Dave Ragone is among the nation's best, but
must break in new receivers and a new offensive line. No problem,
he says.
3. Cincinnati - Gino Guidugli returns under center and is eager
to prove his freshman season was no fluke. In LaDaris Vann and
Tye Keith he has a sensational receiving corps with which to work.
4. East Carolina - The Pirates have a lot of unknown quantities
on both offense and defense, says head coach Steve Logan. He'll
start learning more about them real soon.
5. TCU - The Frogs have the defense and mentality to finish in
the league's upper half. Now, if they could just find a running
game.
6. Memphis - When you think about Tommy West-coached teams,
defense generally comes to mind. However, that will once again be
the Tigers' weakness and is why they'll go bowl-less in '02.
7. Houston - The Cougars should be C-USA's most improved team
this season. After going winless in '01, it'd be hard not to be.
8. Tulane - Even though QB Patrick Ramsey has taken his talent to
the pros, the Wave shouldn't miss a beat on offense with JP Losman
under center and RB Mewelde Moore carrying the load. The defense,
however, is a different story.
9. UAB - On the field, the Blazers have almost as many issues as
they do off. That's a mouthful.
10. Army - Head coach Todd Berry continues to improve the Knights
steadily on offense. The jury is still out on the defense. |
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When ECU has the ball
Roof has taken a similar path to the one
chosen by ECU defensive boss Tim Rose, putting more speed on the field.
That formula, coupled with the fact that Troth has thrown just four
collegiate passes, should keep the Pirates on the ground with Art Brown and
Marvin Townes operating behind an experienced, talented offensive line.
The Devils, no doubt, will try their best to
disrupt Troth early, but look for offensive coordinator Doug Martin to keep
things simple for his greenhorn field general by utilizing his backs, while
mixing in play-action.
Don't be surprised if the Pirates start
slowly. It could take time for Troth to get his feet wet. Simply put,
though, the Pirates have too much talent, a lot more speed, and too many
ways to hit the Devils to not find their rhythm, eventually.
The Pirates will post a 200-plus yard
rushing day, and Richard Alston will provide an explosion play. Meanwhile,
Steve Logan's prodigious QB will gain more confidence as the game
progresses.
Advantage: ECU
When Duke has the ball
East Carolina will deploy a similar gameplan
on defense, utilizing its speed to get after an inexperienced quarterback.
Carl Franks hasn't shown his hand on who that may be, but every indication
out of Durham is that Adam Smith, not Chris Dapolito will be the next pilot
of Air Ball.
Big and lanky, Smith lacks the mobility of
his predecessor -- D. Bryant -- which will add more pressure on Duke's big,
but inexperienced offensive line. So, it shouldn't come as a shock that
running back Chris Douglas will get plenty of touches, while bulldozing
fullback Alex Wade clears the way.
Duke wouldn't be Duke, though, if it didn't
open things up and take its shots down field. Paul Jette's revamped
secondary has been preparing for this moment since December and is itching
to lock-and-load on young Blue Devil receivers.
Pressure is the name of the game in Rose's
remodeled system, something Duke has yet to prove it can handle. The Bucs
get to Smith often, forcing numerous mistakes.
Advantage: ECU
Special Teams
Even if the offense doesn't crank into full
gear, or the defense at times finds itself on its heels, ECU's special teams
should provide enough of an X factor to win the game. The Pirates have an
award-winning cast, headlined by kicker Kevin Miller, punter Jarad Preston,
and return specialist Marvin Townes.
Miller's accuracy inside 45 yards will
alleviate pressure off Troth to punch it in, while Preston's strong leg and
a strong coverage team should translate into poor field position for the
Devils. Alston and Townes are both threats to break big returns, especially
with ten solid blockers leading the way.
Advantage: ECU
Prediction
The Pirates move the ball early, behind the
legs of Brown and Townes, but struggle in the red zone offense. Sooner or
later, though, the Pirates get it going and bedevil Duke by the spread --
Pirates 27, The Streak 24, Duke 13.
Houston at Rice
This backyard battle features a contrast in
styles, pitting Rice's option attack against Houston's one-back aerial
assault. Defense isn't the forte of either, meaning the final score could
make Arena League coaches exceedingly envious.
Nobody, outside of Duke, could use a win
more than Dana Dimel's Coogs. After a disappointing 2000, Houston posted a
rotten egg in the win column last year, but nonetheless has reason to be
upbeat. Quarterback Nick Eddy is serviceable, and KeyKowa Bell, Brandon
Middleton, and Brian Robinson make for a strong throng of receivers.
Eddy should have a blast playing catch with
his three musketeers, who are much more athletic than the Owls' undermanned
secondary. But look for Rice to find paydirt often, too, just not enough to
win this up-and-down match. Houston steams Rice, 38-35.
Murray State at Memphis
Tommy West has a history of scheduling a few
non-conference cupcakes, dating back to his days in Clemson. Considering
the fact he was dismissed from his previous post, maybe he should schedule
more.
West does appear to have the Tigers on the
rise, however, and has changed everything from the uniforms to the offense
in the City of Elvis. Well, at least the offense is looking better.
Quarterback Danny Wimprine, who burst on the
scene as a freshman, will see plenty of rest in this one, and Dante' Brown,
the Tigers' All C-USA candidate at running back, will likely get a half-day
vacation, too. The Tigers should gallop past the Racers with ease, 40-13.
If not, perhaps West shouldn't be so ambitious with future schedules.
Jackson State at Southern Miss
Southern Miss traditionally opens with a
challenging opponent. Not this year.
Head coach Jeff Bower will learn little more
about his team than the knowledge he gained during preseason camp. But
that's okay, considering the Eagles are breaking in a new field general and
one-time All C-USA running back Derrick Nix will see his first action in
almost two seasons.
Even if the offense sputters, which it
won't, the defense and special teams could score enough to win this one
handily. Look for USM's smothering defense to rock Tigers ball carriers all
day long in this 55-7 landslide.
Southern at Tulane
It isn't exactly the Bayou Classic, but it
will likely draw the biggest gate for Tulane this season. I-AA Southern
boasts a larger fan base and will make for a halfway decent crowd in the
cavernous Superdome.
A battle of the bands would certainly make
it more interesting, though the Jazzy Jags would win that contest hands
down. That's about all the fireworks Southern will provide on the coarse
Superdome carpet.
Tulane still lacks the horses defensively,
but has talent galore on offense. QB JP Losman, WR Roydell Williams, and RB
Mewelde Moore should post career numbers by intermission, as the Wave washes
away the Jags, 48-20.
UAB at Florida
Florida QB Rex Grossman kicks off his
Heisman campaign against a depleted UAB defense. Gone are high-rounders
Eddie Freeman and Bryan Thomas, who last year anchored one of the nation's
most sturdy frontlines.
It has all the ingredients for a banner day
for King Rex.
About the only thing UAB can look forward to
is the Florida sunshine and a hefty paycheck. In case you didn't notice,
the Blazers kinda need the money these days, but even a trip to The Swamp
won't be enough to get them in the black.
The offense has never been dynamic under
Watson Brown's direction, and shouldn't be explosive this year, either.
Especially on Saturday. Quarterback Thomas Cox is marginal at best under
center, and has mediocre talent surrounding him. Florida coach Ron Zook
gets his first win in Gator Blue and Orange, and it will be a big one, 47-7.
Kentucky at
Louisville (Sunday)
The Cards have owned their neighboring
rivals since John L. Smith's arrival. Don't expect the Wildcats to buck
that trend anytime soon.
Timing is everything in football, and the
'Cats couldn't have picked a worse time to participate in this Bluegrass
battle. Coming off two-consecutive C-USA titles, the U of L is primed to
score a hat trick, and will be more than happy to thump its uppity rival
along the way.
In a game that could take upwards of four
hours, southpaw rivals Dave Ragone (Louisville) and Jared Lorenzen
(Kentucky) will toss more passes than Papa John will pizzas in this lopsided
opener. Kentucky's buffet killing QB shouldn't walk away empty handed,
though. Look for the 275-pounder to down a couple of extra large supremes,
while his 'Cats purr timidly in a 41-17 loss.
Game of the
Week:
Texas Christian at Cincinnati (Monday)
This Labor Day special features a couple of
dark horses some say could make a serious run at Louisville and Southern
Miss. If either plans to entertain such aspirations, winning the season
opener is critical.
C-USA definitely saved the best for last
this week, as this early season grudge match is easily the most intriguing
game on the slate. Cincinnati, some say, is the darkhorse that can post a
serious challenge to Southern Miss and Louisville, while TCU already proved
last season that it can thump the league's so-called big boys.
In a game that figures to be close, you
would think the home-field advantage would give the Bearcats a bit of an
edge. Nippert Stadium, however, has never been an intimidating place to
play, and the Frogs showed last season they weren't shy about hopping into
enemy territory and collecting a marquee win.
Sensational Cincinnati quarterback Gino
Guidugli couldn't have picked a tougher opener. TCU has a knack for
frustrating glamour boy QBs and you can rest assured head coach Gary
Patterson will let the dogs out in this one.
When push comes to shove, always go with the
better defense early in the season, plain and simple. The 'Cats have more
question marks on that side of the ball, which is why I like TCU to post a
laborious victory, 23-20.
Yes, I realize that I ranked Cincinnati two
notches higher than TCU in my preseason C-USA Power Poll. Let's just chalk
it up as a minor upset.
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02/23/2007 01:45:27 AM
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