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Friday, January 2, 2015

By Greg Vacek


Past results don't predict the future

By Greg Vacek
©2014 Bonesville.net
All rights reserved.

If I had told you in August that East Carolina would shake up the regional power structure with September victories over North Carolina and Virginia Tech, would you have accused me of wearing purple-tinted glasses?

If I had predicted at the beginning of the season that the Pirates would have a chance to win nine games with Shane Carden and Justin Hardy capping off their record-breaking careers against the Florida Gators in a post-New Year's Day bowl game, would you have said that sounds pretty darn good?

Late season stumbles have had many Pirate fans debating whether the 2014 season provided some of the most gut-wrenching losses in ECU history. Although this season has had many “what ifs,” it also had its magical moments.

Time seems to help fans forget the memories of missed opportunities of seasons gone by. Teams led by Skip Holtz suffered heartbreaking bowl setbacks to SEC opponents Kentucky and Arkansas in consecutive Liberty Bowl appearances (2008 and 2009).

Ed Emory’s 1983 squad, which was arguably one of ECU’s best teams ever, also had its share of heartbreak. In ECU’s only appearance against Florida to date, the No. 6 Gators used a late fourth-quarter touchdown run by Neal Anderson to post a 24-17 victory on Oct. 22, 1983 in Gainesville.

Emory’s Pirates completed that season with an 8-3 record, dropping all three contests to Sunshine State opponents (47-46 at Florida State, 24-17 at Florida, 12-7 at Miami) by a combined 13 points. They did defeat future SEC member Missouri, but ECU failed to receive a bowl invite even with a top 20 ranking. Instead a 6-5 Notre Dame team was invited to the Liberty bowl.

Out of all the games and locales the Pirate have played, the State of Alabama has hosted some of the most disappointing moments in the annals of ECU sports. Some believe the East Carolina football team is cursed when stepping inside the Alabama state line. How do you explain what happened on December 19, 2001, when the Pirates led by 30 at halftime of the GMAC Bowl in Mobile, yet found a way to lose to Marshall 64-61 in double overtime? Or a 22-23 loss in Birmingham in 1998 to Alabama after Brantley Rivers' extra point was blocked and returned by the Crimson Tide’s Kecalf Bailey for a rare two-point PAT return.

How do you explain what happened in a Conference USA game on September 9, 2006, when the Pirates were on their way to a long touchdown pass for the go-ahead score late in the game when UAB safety Chris Felder punched the ball out of Phillip Henry’s hands and the Blazers recovered in the end zone to preserve a 17-12 UAB win?

Maybe there was some legitimacy to the Curse of Alabama. Or maybe East Carolina historically had reserved some of its most disappointing performances for its visits to the heartland of college football. Since 1965, ECU’s record in the state of Alabama is 4-10. The Pirates do have a three-game winning streak at Historic Legion Field, finally breaking a 10-game O-fer-Alabama losing streak with an error-filled 17-13 breath holder victory over UAB in 2008. ECU’s last loss in the state of Alabama was in the inaugural Birmingham (PapaJohns.com) Bowl in 2006.

The Florida Gators aren't strangers to playing football games in the city of Birmingham, but five of their six prior matchups have been against the Alabama Crimson Tide. The only other time Florida has played a team other than the Crimson Tide was in the 1988 All-American Bowl at Legion Field when the Gators beat Illinois, 14-10.

The last two times Florida has played at Legion Field were in the first two SEC championship games, both against Alabama. Florida lost to Alabama, 28-21, in the inaugural conference title game in 1992 and the Tide went on to win the national championship. The next year in a SEC championship rematch, Florida beat Alabama, 28-13.

ECU and Florida had the South Carolina Gamecocks as a common opponent on their schedules this season and the net result was similar as Carden and the Pirates passed for 321 yards in a 33-23 road loss, while the Gators rushed for 218 in a 23-20 home overtime defeat.

A lot will be changing with the Florida program this offseason with the dismissal of head coach Will Muschamp. Defensive Coordinator D.J. Durkin will serve as interim head Gator during the bowl game.

ECU coach Ruffin McNeill is familiar with interim head coaching role, as he was tasked with preparing a Texas Tech team for its bowl game after Mike Leach was fired. Ruff led the Red Raiders to a victory over Michigan State.

The big question: What changes will the Gators make made under Durkin? Will Kurt Roper air it out now that he has complete control of the offense? Considering Florida QB Treon Harris’s struggles with the intermediate passing game, the Pirates can expect that when Harris throws, it will often be a deep ball that will test a secondary that has given up some big plays.

ECU got some bad news Wednesday, losing leading rusher Breon Allen to a knee injury suffered at practice. Adjustments will have to be made on the defensive side as well in the wake of word out of ECU that starting nose tackle Terry Williams and safety Domonique Lennon had been ruled ineligible for the bowl game.

Not to be outdone, the Gators’ announced that two key players, defensive tackle Darious Cummings and wide receiver/kick returner Andre Dubose, did not make the trip to Alabama for varying off-the-field reasons.

Past performance doesn’t predict future results. Durkin was only 15 years old when the Florida last played for the SEC championship in Birmingham. Shane Carden was only 15 years old at Episcopal High School in Bellaire, Texas, when the Pirates last played a bowl game in Birmingham, losing to South Florida in the PapaJohns.com bowl. A lot has changed with the Pirate and Gator programs since then.

On Saturday, Ruffin McNeill can accomplish something Skip Holtz was never able to accomplish at ECU — a bowl victory over an SEC opponent. In an article earlier this season, I wrote, “Ultimately the Pirates will be judged by their body of work, how they perform over the entire season.”

In 2014, the Pirates offensive unit was impressive, rating among the nation’s Top 5 in passing (second), first downs (third) and total yards (fifth). On defense, only seven teams at the FBS level were better against the run than the Pirates, who allowed just 107.1 yards per game. Seniors Shane Carden and Justin Hardy, who were part of McNeill’s first ECU recruiting class, have shattered every passing and receiving record, respectively, to help lead the Pirates to their third-straight bowl appearance and fourth in McNeill’s five years.

With a bowl victory this Saturday, the Pirates can finish the season with at least nine wins for the second consecutive year (and fourth time since 2008) and also would achieve back-to-back bowl victories in successive seasons for the first time since winning three straight in 1963, 1964 and 1965.

For the 2014 version of Pirate football, that's not a bad body of work and not bad place for McNeill’s program to be.

A historical snapshot of ECU's appearances in the state of Alabama:

 • 11/20/1965: ECU 35, Samford 10
 • 11/9/1985: Auburn 35, ECU 10
 • 9/20/1986: Auburn 45, ECU 0
 • 11/5/1994: Auburn 38, ECU 21
 • 10/17/1998: Alabama 23, ECU 22 (Birmingham)
 • 11/6/1999: UAB 36, ECU 17
 • 12/22/1999: TCU 28, ECU 14 (Mobile Alabama Bowl)
 • 12/19/2001: Marshall 64, ECU 61 [OT] (GMAC Bowl, Mobile)
 • 11/16/2002: UAB 36, ECU 29
 • 9/9/2006: UAB 17, ECU 12
 • 12/23/2006: USF 24, ECU 7 (PapaJohns.com Bowl, Birmingham)
 • 11/22/2008: ECU 17, UAB 13
 • 11/11/2010: ECU 54, UAB 42
 • 10/20/2012: ECU 42, UAB 35
 • 1/3/2015: ECU vs. Florida (Birmingham Bowl)

E-mail Greg Vacek

PAGE UPDATED 01/02/15 03:58 AM.

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