|
Keys to the
Game Friday,
October 26, 2012
By Kevin Monroe |
|
ECU vs. Navy
Saturday, Oct. 27, 2012 • 3:30 pm
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium (cap. 50,000)
TV: FCS
By
Kevin Monroe
©2012 Bonesville.net
All rights reserved.
East
Carolina can defeat Navy on Saturday if it performs well in these
key aspects of the game:
CONTAIN
THE RUNNING GAME
The
Midshipmen have always been and will always be able to run the football.
It's all about the players they recruit. The linemen are generally shorter
and thinner than other Division I teams because there are size requirements
that incoming recruits must meet in order to be in the military. Since they
aren’t as big as other offensive linemen, that usually means they are
quicker and faster than their counterparts. That type of athleticism
leverages the Navy line's ability to come off the ball, make blocks and get
down the field to continue blocking — factors that make the Middies' run
game successful. The average weight of the Navy offensive lineman is about
285 pounds and the average height is about 6-2. Only one lineman is over 300
pounds and only one is over 6-4. Usually I would say that ECU's size
advantage would be smothering to an offensive line that small, but the
dynamics that make Navy so good are the athleticism of those lineman and,
most importantly, the element of misdirection.
The
Midshipmen run a triple open offense that features plenty of ball fakes.
The Pirates will need to tackle each back on every play to make sure
they aren’t fooled. Navy is averaging 236 rushing yards per game this
season. If ECU can keep the Middies under 4 yards per carry and less
than 150 yards total rushing, that would be considered a defensive
victory in my book.
GET OFF THE FIELD ON
THIRD DOWN
On third down, Navy is currently converting only 37% of the time, which is
good news for the Pirates. Anything over 50% is generally considered good.
Navy wants to slow down this football game and keep ECU’s quick strike
offense off the field. In the past two games, the Pirates have had one-play
scoring drives on big passing plays to Justin Hardy. The Midshipmen have
seen this on film and will endeavor to avoid getting into a shootout with
ECU. They want to control the game clock by running the football and keeping
the chains moving. Defensively, the Pirates are holding their opponents to
about a 35% conversion rate on third down. East Carolina needs to play tough
on first and second downs and put Navy into situations of third down and 5
yards or more, forcing the Middies to throw the football. Navy quarterback
Trey Miller, who has been hampered with an ankle injury, has been listed as
probable. Freshman Keenan Reynolds should start his third straight game.
Reynolds is only completing 58% of his passes.
DON'T
GIVE UP THE BIG PLAY
Big plays
are those that gain 20 yards or more. When the Midshipmen beat the Pirates
in Greenville in 2010, they scored 76 points and had several big plays on
the ground and through the air. It will be important to make Navy grind out
scores and not have any one- or two-play drives. Three and outs will be big
for the Pirates on Saturday, but if they are unable to meet that objective,
then making the Midshipman fight for every yard and settle for field goals
is the way to go.
BOTTOM LINE
Navy is a
very good football team with a record of 4-3 on the year. The Middies' three
loses have come to teams that have a combined record of 17-4 (Notre Dame,
Penn State and San Jose State). The Pirates will need to score points to
win, but it will be their defense that will make the difference. If they
allow the Midshipmen to move the ball up and down the field and eat up the
clock with no real resistance, the Pirates will lose this game. If they can
slow the run, force Navy to pass the football and hold the Middies to field
goal attempts, the Pirates should win handily. This is a big game for East
Carolina. It would be the Pirates' 6th win and their first three-game
winning streak of the season.
E-mail Kevin Monroe.
PAGE UPDATED
10/26/12 02:11 AM.
|