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Pirate Notebook No. 260
Friday, December 2, 2005

By Denny O'Brien

Winning won't be easy in '06

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©2005 Bonesville.net

Winning breeds expectations. The unfair reality of that statement could be the most fierce opponent facing major college coaches today.

That East Carolina closed its 2005 football campaign with two victories over quality opponents no doubt has accelerated the pace with which fans expect Skip Holtz to build a consistent winner. Because of the pieces already in place, it shouldn't take Picasso to a create a picture out of ECU's once messy pigskin puzzle, so the thinking goes.

Should it?

After all, the Pirates do return a talented senior quarterback who will study the same playbook in spring drills for the first time in his career. His quick mastery of the offense in 2005 and maturity in the pocket gave ECU a chance to win almost every Saturday and should do so again next fall.

There also is a host of skill on offense and defense returning, along with a talented corps of defensive linemen. Add to that a seasoned staff that excels in instruction and preparation and the goals in 2006 should be pretty clear:

Anything less than contention for the Conference USA title and a postseason bowl just won't cut it.

Right?

Wrong.

In a perfect scenario that certainly would be the case. This year's 5-6 record would be the springboard to an impressive Signing Day harvest, spirited spring practice, intense summer camp, and memorable run through a tough 2006 gauntlet.

While the first three are solid bets, odds of the latter are far from definite.

"Honestly, our aspirations and our expectations going into this year were a lot higher than this," Holtz said following ECU's victory over UAB. "I said that we were going to set the goals this year that we were going to have four years from now. We were going to give the seniors the opportunity to achieve those goals."

"Now," he added, "I said if you turn and you shoot for the stars and you reach the moon, did you fail? No."

Sure didn't. Just like a 6-6 or 5-7 record next season shouldn't be considered a failure, either.

In case you haven't noticed, the Pirates are staring down the barrel of the most ambitious schedule they have faced in recent memory. With non-conference dates set with Navy, N.C. State, Virginia, and West Virginia, along with C-USA trips to Central Florida and Southern Miss, ECU can expect to be the underdog in at least half of its games.

And that doesn't include the remainder of the conference schedule. East Carolina hasn't exactly advanced its program to the point where Marshall, Memphis, and UAB are considered automatics.

Neither is the rest of the league for that matter.

At this stage, the safest best for next season is a team that is improved and again is competitive on a weekly basis. There will be no lack of determination or spirit, and there likely won't be many (if any) cases in which the scoreboard features lopsided margins.

In one short year, Holtz has restored the program to the point where it can compete with anyone on its schedule. Judging solely by the Pirates' performance in Morgantown this season, that should apply to next year as well.

That said, there are few matchups in which East Carolina will hold a decided advantage in talent. Very few.

A .500 or better finish likely will require at least one non-conference win, of which Navy appears to offer the best shot. Even so, facing a wishbone offense on the road doesn't provide much comfort.

The Pirates also will need to coast through the season without wholesale injuries to key personnel. That they did this season is largely why they posted five wins.

ECU also must greatly improve defensively against the run, hold the turnover advantage, avoid periodic mental lapses, and quickly piece together the offensive line — which admittedly is a shorter checklist than the one Holtz inherited.

On paper, East Carolina will be an improved team that should contend for a bowl next year despite the narrow margin for error it faces. The problem is, that same outlook applies to almost every opponent on its schedule.

Send an e-mail message to Denny O'Brien.

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02/23/2007 02:00:39 AM

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