Call it a hunch, but I'm guessing East Carolina doesn't play in a BCS
bowl this season.
When all the voting, calculating, and network maneuvering is complete,
the Pirates won't have the perfect record and imposing schedule required of
a team in a league without an automatic BCS bid.
It doesn't take a genius to draw that conclusion. But it would take
nothing short of one to accurately predict ECU's fate this year.
About the only bet I'd feel safe making is on an improvement over last
season's 1-11 finish. Whether it's two wins or ten, expect a more polished
outfit under second-year coach John Thompson.
"There was a lot of unknown last year and that happens with change,"
Thompson said in the spring. "We have learned from that and we are going to
be better. We have gotten better and the improvement is greater."
That much became evident during the late stages of 2003.
Where the Pirates looked inept and disorganized in their first few games,
they resembled a competitive, determined group over the last month. Though
the Pirates finished 0-for-November, there at least were some inspiring
performances on which to build.
The most noticeable strides occurred on defense, where ECU gained more
confidence in Thompson's complex, aggressive approach as the year
progressed. During the final three games, no opponent exceeded the 400-yard
plateau, which is quite an achievement given the unit's performance over the
previous two seasons.
With a solid nucleus returning and a full year in the system, the defense
should take another step forward this fall.
Individually, linebacker Chris Moore has player-of-the-year potential,
while corner Erode Jean could contend for all-league honors. Cohesively,
everyone should have a better understanding of roles and assignments in a
scheme designed to bring discomfort to even the most astute offensive
coaches.
The bigger questions reside on offense.
Disaster is the label that best applies to the Rick Stockstill experiment
of '03. With essentially the same personnel as the year before, the Pirates'
production dropped by ten points per game.
A once viable air attack was grounded from day one, and the running game
took half the season to hit its stride. By the time fullback Vonta Leach
became a factor, the Pirates were lingering on life support.
By design, Stockstill's philosophy was a poor fit for the personnel he
inherited. Built around speed and finesse, ECU made an immediate shift to
power, but lacked the necessary horses to succeed with that approach.
The hiring of Steve Spurrier protégé Noah Brindise to oversee the offense
should signify a change for the better. His experience as both a player and
teacher in the acclaimed Fun-n-Gun should pay dividends this year.
At the very least, the Pirates should feel more comfortable in an offense
more suited to their personnel.
"It is a totally different system," Thompson said during March drills.
"We tried to carry over a little bit, but Noah and I talked about it and we
don't feel like that is the best way to do it.
"We are going to put in Noah's system and Noah's offense. I have competed
against this offense and this style of offense three times and it was
undoubtedly the toughest style of offense to ever prepare for."
Still, there are concerns that can't be overlooked.
For starters, James Pinkney may have solidified himself as the starting
quarterback in the spring, but his experience is limited. Much of the
Pirates' success will be contingent on his grasp of the offense and ability
to deliver deep throws.
The offensive line also must be re-tooled, and the receiving corps has no
proven playmakers. If neither group gels early, the growing pains could be
severe for the Pirates QB.
Art Brown's knee remains a question, despite reports of a clean bill of
health. It has been almost two years since he sustained a vicious blow, so
no one knows for sure how the all-league back will respond in a game
situation.
A positive response to those questions no doubt would thrust the Pirates
a few rungs up the Conference USA standings. The inverse could keep ECU
hovering in pigskin purgatory for at least another year.
Given the necessary moves Thompson made in the off-season, the Pirates
should escape the latter. By how big a margin remains to be seen.
