Earth to East Carolina: Welcome back. After two months of near immortal
baseball, that was the greeting the Pirates received in Houston last week.
Whether or not ECU's early departure in the Conference USA tournament was
a fluke or a dose of reality remains to be seen. My guess is it was
somewhere in between.
Like any superpower, the Pirates have their kryptonite. The combination
of cool bats and the absence of ace Greg Bunn makes East Carolina vulnerable
against almost any capable opponent.
Toss in a southpaw who can change speeds along with a little pressure and
you have a potentially unstable formula.
Against lower-caliber competition, that equation hasn't been an issue
this season. By and large, the Pirates have proven they can get by with a
C-plus effort when the talent gap is significant.
But aside from a
first round game against Stony Brook
this weekend, that no longer is a luxury. From here to the College World
Series, the opposing dugouts will be stacked with tradition-rich ball clubs,
some of which have Omaha experience.
The road to Omaha is turbulent to say the least, and if the Pirates don't
quickly rediscover their mid-season form, they will hit the exit ramp well
short of their goal.
For starters, East Carolina needs a good showing from the top of its
order. Leadoff man Jamie Paige is the unheralded sparkplug of the Pirates
offense, to which ECU's record will attest.
When the senior centerfielder caught fire at the plate, the Pirates went
on an offensive binge that carried them through a 19-game winning streak.
Paige's ability to reach base consistently kept constant pressure on
opposing pitchers, and ECU's run production soared as a result.
Though the Pirates have plenty of sticks behind Paige, he is the player
who is likely to set the tone. Behind him, ECU's hitters must remain patient
and take what the pitching and defense is willing to surrender.
That means a commitment to advance base runners in tight games.
On the mound and defensively, the path to success is quite simple. As
elementary as it may sound, ECU hurlers must hit their spots and the defense
must execute routine plays.
Bottom line, postseason success is typically defined by fundamentals and
execution, two basic concepts the Pirates didn't take to Houston. And at
almost any level, match-ups and a touch of luck play heavily into the
outcome of close games.
It's not a particularly comforting thought to consider ECU's possible
second day match-up. Both Tennessee and UNC Wilmington play small ball
offensively and possess talented left-handed starters.
That's the bad news. The worse news is a potential trip to Columbia to
face South Carolina if the Pirates advance to the Super Regionals.
On a more positive note, the Pirates should still be considered the
favorite to advance to the next round, where they undoubtedly have enough
talent to beat the Gamecocks in a best-of-three series. What's more, East
Carolina is a team that can play from behind and believes it is destined for
the CWS.
That is a dangerous combination for almost any team that faces the
Pirates in the postseason.
From day one, East Carolina has been driven to punch its first ticket to
the College World Series. Riding an early exit from the C-USA tournament,
the Pirates are better rested and perhaps even more focused for the
postseason run.
Bullpens and base running aside, desire is one area in which the Pirates
can lap the field.
The message from the NCAA selection committee was clear Monday. The RPI
was the primary determinant for securing a national seed, closely followed
by performance down the stretch.
Of course, that is a direct contradiction from what selection committee
chairman Charlie Carr said Sunday during the announcement of the regional
sites. When questioned about
five SEC schools earning the right to host,
Carr's response was that performance throughout the season was taken heavily
into account.
Oh really?
Perhaps Mr. Carr can explain why East Carolina and Notre Dame were denied
a national seed in favor of Arizona State and Arkansas. Sure, winning
Conference USA or the Big East may not be perceived as sexy as a PAC 10 or
SEC title, but both the Pirates and Irish have been consistent from start to
finish.
The same can't be said for the Sun Devils or Razorbacks. Even the major
polls would agree with that.
Pirates coach Randy Mazey stuck with his starting rotation in the C-USA
tournament. Given the competition in the upcoming NCAA Regionals, it would
be smart to consider a shift.
With a potential match-up against Tennessee or UNC Wilmington, both of
which possess premier pitching staffs, it would be wise to save Bunn for
Saturday. You have to figure the Pirates can get by Stony Brook with either
Brody Taylor or Shane Matthews on the hill.
Such a move wouldn't mean the Pirates are overlooking the Sea Wolves.
After all, Taylor and Matthews did combine for a 13-1 record this year.
Besides, against a Stony Brook club that batted only .268 on the season,
saving Bunn for Saturday would be a smart move.