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Denny O'Brien's Game Day Preview
Saturday, October 26, 2002

FOOTBALL

Smith shouldering blame for Cards' woes

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John L. Smith isn't blaming others for his team's disappointing performance against Texas Christian last week.  He's looking directly in the mirror.

Following a disappointing 45-31 loss to the Horned Frogs last week, the Cardinals coach attributed Louisville's woeful performance to a lack of preparation, something for which he is taking the brunt of the responsibility.

"As a coach, I've never been quite so embarrassed," Smith said.  "We better take a look at what we're doing and see if we can make some improvements. It's our fault as coaches. We better get them prepared."

Louisville entered last week's conference showdown as stale as three-week-old bread.  The Cardinals trailed 38-6 entering intermission. Even an 18-point onslaught in the first five minutes of the third quarter couldn't bail out the defending Conference USA champs.

Smith, who has led the Cardinals to bowl appearances in each of his first four seasons, attributed the first half performance to a lack of spirit.

"It comes down to playing with emotion," he said.  "How can you walk onto the field and play with no emotion? None. They're in high speed, we're in low speed. That's beyond me. The game is emotional.

"We didn't play a different game plan in the second half than we did in the first half. You have to execute. We've got to get our players excited about the game, and that lies with us (the coaches)."

Louisville certainly didn't help its cause by committing 11 penalties for a total of 89 yards.  However, that's not unusual for the "Red and Black Attack," which has become an easy target for yellow hankies.

The Cardinals have been flagged 81 times for 731 yards, compared to East Carolina, which is the nation's least penalized team at 27-230.

"We're a group of undisciplined guys," Smith said.  "That's not what we preach in this program. Some of us have gotten a lot of pats on the back and are full of ourselves. We've got to take a look in the mirror and see how selfish we are."

Denny O'Brien's
C-USA Power Poll

 1. Texas Christian (6-1, 3-1) -  TCU leapfrogs to top of C-USA heap with convincing win at Papa John's.

 2. Southern Miss (5-2, 3-0) - Eagles bounce back with a solid performance against Cincinnati.

 3. Louisville (4-3, 2-1) - A loss to the Pirates could end all hopes of a third-consecutive C-USA crown.

 4. East Carolina (2-4, 2-0) - Pirates in a now-or-never situation if they have plans on a fourth-consecutive postseason appearance.

 5. Tulane (5-3, 3-2) - One of the league's biggest surprises, Tulane continues to creep toward the postseason.

 6. UAB (3-4, 2-1) - C-USA's Dow Joneser should be on the upswing with visit to West Point.

  7. Cincinnati (2-5, 1-2) - Season slowly slipping away in Clifton.

 8. Memphis (2-5, 1-3) - Loss at Cincinnati would all but end bowl hopes in Elvis Land.

 9. Houston (3-4, 1-3) - Cougars continue to pile up points by the bushel -- and give them up in piles, too.

10. Army (0-7, 0-5) - Things will get better at the Academy -- but not this week.

When ECU has the ball

Take away a handful of sacks and busted plays against South Florida, and East Carolina blisters one of the nation's best run defenses for more than 200 yards.

Attribute that type of production to the return of three regulars on the offensive front, along with the inclusion of a two-back set with Vonta Leach assuming a blocking back role.

"The run game is starting to blossom," head coach Steve Logan said.  "We're discarding some of the things that we were doing last year in the running game and creating some new things this year, although we are still within our parameters, so to speak.

"(Starting center) Doug White is the key. People have no idea that getting him back on the field really mattered."

Louisville, which surrendered an uncharacteristic 250-yards rushing against TCU last week, suddenly looks susceptible to the run, meaning offensive coordinator Doug Martin will likely use larger doses of the two-back set.  If the run game gets going, it could loosen a tight Cardinals secondary, easing the load on Paul Troth's shoulders.

But regardless of how many yards ECU might gain, that could be negated by turnovers.  The Pirates haven't been mature enough yet to perform mistake-free on the road.

Advantage: Even

When Louisville has the ball

Many experts overlooked the fact the Cardinals were introducing four new starters on the offensive front, along with a new corps of receivers.  The strains of that transition are a good indication why the U of L is a disappointing 4-3.

One thing that hasn't changed in the Derby City is the team's lead jockey.  Quarterback Dave Ragone, though not the Heisman contender folks originally thought, continues to work his magic, throwing for an average of 236 yards per game.

When he isn't sitting comfortably in the pocket, he's equally dangerous as a bruising open-field runner.

"What Dave Ragone does that drives everybody crazy, on third down you'll cover everybody, do a good job pressuring him, and he'll step through the pocket and run for a first down," Logan said.  "He is one of the leading rushers as well as the leading thrower, obviously, on their football team.

"The thing that happens over and over, he gets hit in the pocket and people don't finish the play.  You can't get him on the ground."

For two consecutive years, TCU has shown the formula for plucking the Cards — blitz their all-star QB.  The Frogs sacked the Louisville lefty six times in the game, as the Cardinals rushed for a dismal -26 yards on the day.

East Carolina, however, hasn't shown an ability to get to the quarterback this season.  And even when offenses are forced into a one-dimensional approach, even that limited style of attack has often been more than enough to get the job done.

Advantage: Louisville

Special teams

Kevin Miller continues his solid work as the Pirates' kicker, but Jarad Preston has fallen off a bit of late. 

The Pirates' punter averaged just 40-yards per punt last week against USF, and his lack of hang time allowed the Bulls to set up big returns that resulted in short fields.  Nonetheless, the senior still ranks 16th nationally in punting, averaging 43-yards per boot.

Though Louisville's kickers likely won't keep pace with Miller and Preston, Damien Dorsey ranks fifth in punt returns, while Broderick Clark is the nation's fourth-best at returning kickoffs.  That should present a stout challenge for a team that has struggled of late with its coverage units.

Advantage: Even

Prediction

With a more veteran club led by a senior quarterback with an NFL future, Louisville looks to be a clear-cut favorite in a game of upper-division C-USA foes.  Interesting enough, though, the road team has dominated this series since the league's inception, which does offer some hope for the Pirates.  ECU's inexperience, however, and inability to take care of the football should be too much to overcome in a hostile environment.  The Pirates will score some points, just not enough.  Cardinals 34, Pirates 23.

The League Race (through 10/19/02)

STANDINGS

CONFERENCE OVERALL
TEAM W L W L
Southern Miss 3 0 5 2
East Carolina 2 0 2 4
Texas Christian 3 1 6 1
Louisville 2 1 4 3
UAB 2 1 3 4
Tulane 3 2 5 3
Cincinnati 1 2 2 5
Houston 1 3 3 4
Memphis 1 3 2 5
Army 0 5 0 7

Around Conference USA

UAB at Army

Todd Berry was looking forward to this season, largely because of his new quarterback, Reggie Nevels.  However, injuries to Army's young field general has spoiled the Black Knights' party.

Watson Brown finally has the offense he always envisioned in Birmingham.  This year, though, he doesn't have the defense to go with it.

He'll have more than enough to top the Knights.  Blazers 36, Knights 17.

Memphis at Cincinnati

In the preseason, this looked to be a matchup of two upper-echelon teams.  Instead, the loser can all but kiss any bowl hopes goodbye.

Quarterbacks Danny Wimprine (Memphis) and Gino Guidugli (Cincinnati) will be under the microscope in a rematch of last season's game that determined who represented the league in the Motor City Bowl.  Whichever QB doesn't turn the ball over should be victorious.

Wimprine has been the better of the two at that, but there's just something magical about Guidugli.  Expect him to pull a rabbit out of his hat in a close 34-31 Bearcats victory.

Navy at Tulane

The Green Wave has emerged as a legitimate contender for one of C-USA's five bowl slots.  A win against Navy gets it one step closer.

Tulane has continued its fine tradition of offense this season despite the loss of quarterback Patrick Ramsey, who currently rides Steve Spurrier's QB merry-go-round in the nation's capital.  J.P. Losman hasn't missed a beat and running back Mewelde Moore continues his mad dash to the NFL.

Both should post solid numbers against a porous Navy defense.  And with an improved defense of its own, Tulane will likely bend against the Midshipmen's wishbone attack, but shouldn't break too much.  Green Wave becomes bowl eligible, 42-20.

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02/23/2007 01:47:01 AM
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